How the Corona Virus Could Spread in Austria

25.01.2020

With our population and network models, we are already working to better understand how the Corona Virus could spread when it comes to Austria. No panic is necessary, it is still not entirely clear how dangerous the virus is - diseases like the flu also spread every year - and various strategies are being developed to deal with possible dangers.

But tools to understand what happens when the virus comes to us are becoming increasingly important. In this case the virus would probably reach us via an airport, e.g. Vienna International Airport. In such a case, it first spreads from there locally. It is important to understand how health infrastructure and medication could then be used to plan interventions. The video shows the use of available hospitals in red. Another aspect of the simulation is to understand in what way, but above all how quickly the virus would spread over long distances via contact networks.

Such simulation models are based on modules that we have developed in recent years with the TU Wien and DEXHELPP and can be used very quickly to better assess dangers and different strategies, e.g. for quarantine measures and resource planning.

Contact: Dr. Martin Bicher, dwh GmbH; martin.bicher@dwh.at

Literature:

Spiegel: Wie gefährlich ist das neuartige Coronavirus?

Sources:

GEPOC ABM: A GENERIC AGENT-BASED POPULATION MODEL FOR AUSTRIA

DYNAMIC MULTIPLEX SOCIAL NETWORK MODELS ON MULTIPLE TIME SCALES FORSIMULATING CONTACT FORMATION AND PATTERNS IN EPIDEMIC SPREAD