Who is going to be our Federal President?

23.05.2016 - Niki Popper

The SORA Institute for Social Research and Consulting calculates ca. 76.7% valid election cards in projections for the ORF. Following these projections 60.82% of the election cards are going to vote for Van der Bellen (VdB). The victory of VdB is going to be extremely close, they say. A draw occurs, at 75.1% of the election card prognosis which means that the prognosis already flips if just 14,166 election cards less are submitted than expected… Also, if VdB gains just 60.6% of the election card votes… Following this, the difference between victory or defeat lies in just 0.22% of positive will of the election card voters regarding VdB.

The prognosis of ATV expects 79.7(04)% response at election cards (a little higher than the ORF), and of these votes 58.8% are expected go to VdB – a little less than the ORF projections. Following this, Hofer is winning closely. If the popularity of VdB with the election card voters stays the same, a draw would occure only at 92.5% of the valid election cards. This seems unlikely, because nearly all of the election cards should arrive to make that possible. Even with a higher number of valid election cards, the prognosis is relatively stable - but only according to changes in the overall numbers of election cards… If VdB wins against the expectations of ATV 60.2% instead of 58.8% of the election card votes (these are just ca. 10,000 votes more than expected), the prognosis will flip in the other direction. VdB would win…You would not like to be the people doing the prognoses...

Note: the alleged voting cards also include voters who already have applied for voting cards at the first ballot (this does not change anymore) but might not need them this time. Potentially they are going to vote the ‘normal’ way at the ballot box. Both TV stations assume that the participation of voters at the elections is going to be more or less the same but that all newly applied election cards are going to return this time.

Finally, this means possible grief for Hofer, because the hope that in the meanwhile others are going to vote with election cards as well – voter groups that are disposed favourably to Hofer –, might be deceitful. There are not more card voters as we had some weeks ago but just those of different election. Van der Bellen and Green Party voters that have gone swimming at the last election might be annoyed about the temptation of the beautiful weather, because election cards are very important for VdB: if the participation of election cards voter will stay below 80% he will have no chance. And the people doing the prognoses have to estimate two numbers which, de facto, no one can estimate wisely.

A little overview, where the approval of the candidates stays the same, as predicted, and just the number of valid election cards is assumed differently.

Prognoses following SORA for the ORF

VdB

Hofer

100% election cards used and 60.82% (SORA) for VdB

50.52%

49.48%

90% election cards used and 60.82% (SORA) for VdB

50.31%

49.69%

80% election cards used and 60.82% (SORA) for VdB

50.10%

49.90%

70% election cards used and 60.82% (SORA) for VdB

49.89%

50.11%

60% election cards used and 60.82% (SORA) for VdB

49.66%

50.34%

75.1% election cards used and 60.82% (SORA) for VdB

50.00%

50.00%

Prognoses of ATV

100% election cards used and 58,8% (ATV) for VdB

50.13%

49.87%

90% election cards used and 58,8% (ATV) for VdB

49.96%

50.04%

80% election cards used and 58,8% (ATV) for VdB

49.78%

50.22%

70% election cards used and 58,8% (ATV) for VdB

49.60%

50.40%

60% election cards used and 58,8% (ATV) for VdB

49.41%

50.59%

92.5% election cards used and 58,8% (ATV) for VdB

50.00%

50.00%

The effectiveness of prediction models is an important aspect in order to employ them in a useful manner. Similar to the voters behaviour, data and systems are also becoming more complex in other areas which leads to major difficulties in making clear statements. The dwh GmbH evaluates and plans their own projection models and evaluates already existing models for clients, for example, in the Projects Influenza or Pneumokokken.