Participation in the ESA Living Planet Conference 2025

The current status of the Popsicle research project was presented at the European Space Agency (ESA) Living Planet Conference 2025.

The conference took place in Vienna from the 23rd to the 27th of June and attracted almost 7,000 participants from 125 countries. It provides an important forum for discussing the latest scientific findings based on satellite data. Experts can learn how Earth observation data and modern technologies are being used to address current ecological and social challenges.

This year’s focus was on the transition from pure Earth observation to specific measures for climate protection and sustainability. The Living Planet Conference is considered one of the most important international events in the field of Earth observation.

The ‘Popsicle’ project aims to analyse the effects of extreme weather events on infrastructure, evacuation processes and long-term migration movements in Austria by linking Earth observation data (EO) with a flood simulator (scenarify) and an agent-based population model (GEPOC). The aim is to create a sound basis for decision-making for climate-resilient spatial and infrastructure planning, as well as for decision support and evacuation planning.

More information here: https://www.dwh.at/en/news/popsicle/

What we have implemented at DWH so far:

• Improved population distribution with GEPOC: The GEPOC model enables the modelling of a statistically representative population for Austria. As part of Popsicle, the distribution algorithm was further refined at the municipal level using OpenStreetMap building data.

• Agent-based evacuation simulations: Evacuation scenarios in extreme weather conditions are simulated to identify potential bottlenecks. The aim is to support decision-makers in long-term evacuation planning.

• Development of a gravity model for simulating internal migration.

The user story ‘Rust in Tullnerfeld during the 2024 floods’ was presented at the ESA Living Planet Conference 2025. The region was severely affected by flooding in 2024 and had to be evacuated. In the presentation, the flood simulation of Rust in Tullnerfeld was validated using real satellite images and photographs of the events. In addition, fine-grained GEPOC sampling was carried out for the municipality of Rust, followed by a demonstration of an evacuation simulation. Based on satellite data, two roads were deemed impassable. In addition, the study examined how extreme weather events influence long-term migration patterns within Austria, for example through people moving away from particularly affected regions. The interim results already illustrate how the combination of satellite data, population models and simulations can help regions to better prepare for future extreme weather events.