Note: This is an automated translation (using DeepL) of the original German article.
End-of-June Prognosis for first shot. Challenges: logistics, supply with vaccine and willingness to recieve vaccination
While the current projection for COVID-19 vaccination provides confidence, it also highlights challenges on the path to vaccination coverage.
Based on data from the eVaccination Passport and vaccine supply projections from the Vaccination Dashboard (of the Ministry of Health), the expected vaccination progress was calculated. This is based, in addition to prioritized vaccination of risk groups, on the vaccination strategy “consistently from the top down.” This means that the population is vaccinated according to descending age.
With this strategy, by the end of June, 100% of the population over 65 will have been vaccinated at least 1x and 96% will already have been vaccinated 2x. Among the younger population (under 65), 65% (nearly two-thirds) would receive at least the first vaccination with this strategy.
However, the projection also shows the critical points for this vaccination schedule:
- it is based on the fact that the promised vaccine quantities can also be vaccinated by the respective manufacturers delivered on time.
- to achieve the vaccination rates, an average of more than 80,000 vaccinations per day must be administered. This requires …
- on the one hand an optimal logistics, as well as
- a correspondingly high willingness to be vaccinated on the part of the population.
To achieve this level of vaccination, 1.7 million people over the age of 65 and 3.8 million under the age of 65 must be willing to be vaccinated, i.e. a total of 5.5 million. Since just under 1.6 million are currently vaccinated, this means that 3.9 million people must be offered the appropriate vaccine and the logistics for distributing, storing and administering these vaccinations must be guaranteed.