COVID-19: Forecasting Consortium of Ministry of Health with Improved Transparency

  • 02/15/2021

Note: This is an automated translation (using DeepL) of the original German article.

Weekly short-term forecast now available with detailed information and background info

Transparency and comprehensibility are indispensable to build trust, especially in the current situation, with increasing “Corona exasperation”. We are therefore very pleased that the weekly short-term forecasts of the Ministry of Health Forecasting Consortium are now available with significantly more information.

Starting with the latest forecast, a report will also be published in addition to the short-term forecast (in the form of three graphs). This includes explanations, model assumptions, tables with case numbers, background information on the forecast and references to existing uncertainties and limitations. The PDF dated Feb. 9, 2021 can be downloaded here, the following on the Department’s website (see above).

In recent weeks, a steady increase in the effective reproduction number has been observed from about 0.87 on 1/19 to nearly 1 for all of Austria. Current forecasts assume a continuation of this trend, which is reflected in a steady growth of the incidence. It is assumed that the set relaxation steps will only become noticeable towards the end of the forecast period due to the time-delayed effect.