Covid-19 Simulation of Epidemic

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COVID-19 - Overview


The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic posed an unprecedented challenged to decision makers in politics and the health care system. The primary goal was to keep the number of critical cases below the limits of the health care system, and hence ensure medical care for the population. To achieve this extreme measures up to a total lockdown have been taken - with corresponding social and economic side effects.

Due to its expertise and long-lasting research, in cooperation with TU Wien and the research platform DEXHELPP, dwh GmbH has the tools (amongst others GEPOC and the ABT-framework and the know-how to evaluate the efficiency and effects of single measures as well as of packages of countermeasures. It is also possible to also calculate their impact on the health care system to assess the limits of resources. Thanks to this expertise Austrian decision makers were provided with a solid basis for their decisions.


COVID-19 FAQ

Due to the high number of enquiries surrounding the COVID-19 coverage, we have started a COVID-19 blog. This is intended less as a regular diary, but as a place where we try to explain topics around the epidemic, the measures, and the numbers behind them.


Research projects and advisory activity

Research projects


NEW Project


Advisory activity


Documents and scientific publications

Scientific publications


NEW Publications

  • Publication on methods for the development of a COVID-19 testing logistic, based on synthetic data derrived from our simulation model: D. Wolfinger, M. Gansterer, K.F. Doerner, N. Popper, “A Large Neighbourhood Search Metaheuristic for the Contagious Disease Testing Problem”, European Journal of Operational Research, to appear.

Without Preprint

Technical documents, further information and resources

Archive:

Relevant scientific preliminary work

As a decision support service provider in Health Technology Assessment (amongst other areas), dwh GmbH has been supporting a broad spectrum of stakeholders for more than ten years. These stakeholders range from the Ministry of Health to the umbrella organisation of the Austrian social security to various hospital operators. Within the framework of the incubators INITS and Health Hub Vienna, dwh GmbH supports national and international start ups in the evaluation of their innovations for the health care system. Projects range from the analysis of new interventions and therapies to the question of organisational processes in the health care system and the evaluation of new e-health applications.

A selection of preliminary work relevant for the simulation of COVID-19 are the evaluation reports on measles- and polio vaccination rates for the Ministry of Health since 2015, which are the basis for the reference values reported to the WHO. Modelling and simulation of epidemics and the evaluation of appropriate measures and vaccination strategies have been a focus of dwh GmbH since 2010. Examples are projects on influenza and pneumococcus, as well as projects on Dengue Fever (see publication below).

The expertise of dwh GmbH is also recognized and appreciated in the scientific environment. Under the direction of dwh GmbH a large number of cooperative research projects have been implemented. IFEDH with nine further partners from economy and science, then DEXHELPP. dwh GmbH has been working for many years with AIHTA (formerly LBI-HTA), Gesundheit Österreich GmbH (GÖG), Federation of Social Insurances, the Ministry of Health, and many other partners.

Niki Popper, CSO of dwh GmbH, is among others Founding President of the ISPOR Austrian Chapter, and Reviewer at SMDM Modelling Good Research Practice. He is a member of the board of the ASIM, the German-speaking simulation society, where he is in charge of the area ‘Fundamentals and Methods’, he is General Secretary of EUROSIM, the Federation of European Simulation Societies, and coordinator of its Technical Committee ‘Data Driven System Simulation’. He is also chairman of the research platform DEXHELPP, of which dwh GmbH is a founding member. This research project, originally funded by the FFG-program COMET, aims at the development of new methods, models and technologies to support the analysis, planning and control of health care systems based on data and evidence.

Publication of preliminary work


Media coverage

Keynotes, lectures & discussions

Press releases

In the media

Explanation:

The statement by Niki Popper (from this WWTF-talk) focused on the exclusive effect of the vaccination at the time of re-opening. I.e. until re-opening at May 15th the effect of vaccination alone is not enough to justify re-opening. Though the combination of all reducing effects allows for a positive perspective.